What impact would these tax changes have on the value of my home?
People may have concerns about the impact a capital gains tax, specifically, would have on the value of their home or on housing affordability.
In New Zealand, house prices have become less and less affordable over recent decades, with the market cooling recently following an uptick in construction and housing supply. A capital gains tax would extend the existing “brightline test” and help to stabilise the housing market for everyone.
Whilst a lack of supply has been the main driver of housing unaffordability in Aotearoa, speculation on the housing market by private investors, enticed by the lack of taxation on their gains, has also contributed. As such, a capital gains tax, which discourages housing market speculation, can help to ensure that house prices do not increase at an unsustainable rate, helping to make housing affordable for young people, who will have less competition from deep-pocketed investors.
However, a capital gains tax in New Zealand would not constitute a radical shock to the property market. We already have a bright-line test, whereby investors pay capital gains tax on properties that are "flipped" within two years. Instead, a capital gains tax could help to stabilise the property market, slowing down the kind of excessive house-price inflation that has served to lock so many out of the market and contributed to housing insecurity, unaffordable rentals, and homelessness.